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Remove survey-based national calibration targets#830

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MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit intoPolicyEngine:mainfrom
MaxGhenis:codex/remove-national-survey-spm-targets
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Remove survey-based national calibration targets#830
MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit intoPolicyEngine:mainfrom
MaxGhenis:codex/remove-national-survey-spm-targets

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Apr 26, 2026

Summary

  • remove circular survey-derived/SPM-preservation targets from dense national calibration: SPM thresholds, capped housing subsidy, capped work-childcare, non-Part-B medical/OTC/premium aggregates, and gross alimony/child-support levels
  • keep defensible component anchors for SPM-relevant expenses: ACS 2024 state/national contract rent and owner real-estate taxes, BLS CE 2024 childcare expenses, and IRS SOI itemized real-estate-tax amount/count targets
  • add non-gross accounting constraints that alimony paid minus received and child support paid minus received equal zero, with absolute-error scaling so sparse ECPS keeps those zero targets
  • keep age-bucketed health calibration limited to Medicare Part B and add regression tests for national loss/ETL target inclusion/exclusion

Tests

  • env -u UV_FROZEN uv run pytest tests/unit/calibration/test_loss_targets.py tests/unit/test_etl_national_targets.py tests/unit/datasets/test_enhanced_cps_seeding.py
  • git diff --check

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis force-pushed the codex/remove-national-survey-spm-targets branch 2 times, most recently from dd7adc8 to b1e745a Compare April 26, 2026 11:05
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis force-pushed the codex/remove-national-survey-spm-targets branch from b1e745a to 1c12fce Compare April 26, 2026 11:14
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Closing in favor of #831, which uses the same commit from a PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data branch so required CI can run.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis closed this Apr 26, 2026
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