CEDS CMIP7 Aviation Emissions: 2023 Seasonality Issue Identified

[zer19e3]

Dataset source ID(s)

CEDS-CMIP-2025-04-18

Describe the issue

A seasonality anomaly was identified in the 2023 aviation emissions (AIR) within the CEDS-CMIP7 gridded emissions dataset. The issue appears to affect all gridded emission species (see figures below), including BC, CH4, CO, CO2, N2O, NH3, NMVOC, NOx, OC, and SO2.

Inspection of the monthly aviation emissions revealed an unrealistic seasonal cycle, with emissions peaking during January - June and substantially reduced emissions during July - December. This is inconsistent with typical aviation activity patterns and with the seasonality observed in preceding years.

The issue appears to affect the monthly distribution of aviation emissions rather than the annual total emissions.

Screenshots

Additional context

N/A

[znichollscr]

Thanks for identifying, we're resolving this in #451 (new data has been released if you want to check that it fixes the issue you've identified)

[znichollscr]

Note that this should not affect your historical simulations, as they must end in 2021. It does affect scenario simulations, as this seasonality is used for generating the future scenario files.